auraboros.ai

The Agentic Intelligence Report

BREAKING
Scaling Managed Agents: Decoupling the brain from the hands - Anthropic (Anthropic News)GeoAgentBench: A Dynamic Execution Benchmark for Tool-Augmented Agents in Spatial Analysis (arXiv cs.AI)Exploration and Exploitation Errors Are Measurable for Language Model Agents (arXiv cs.AI)OpenAI updates its Agents SDK to help enterprises build safer, more capable agents (TechCrunch AI)India’s vibe-coding startup Emergent enters OpenClaw-like AI agent space (TechCrunch AI)OpenAI updates Agents SDK with new sandbox support for safer AI agents (The Decoder AI)Gitar, a startup that uses agents to secure code, emerges from stealth with $9 million (TechCrunch AI)Connect the dots: Build with built-in and custom MCPs in Studio - Mistral AI (Mistral AI News)Project Glasswing: Securing critical software for the AI era - Anthropic (Anthropic News)Ship Code Faster with Claude Code on Vertex AI - Anthropic (Anthropic News)Scaling Managed Agents: Decoupling the brain from the hands - Anthropic (Anthropic News)GeoAgentBench: A Dynamic Execution Benchmark for Tool-Augmented Agents in Spatial Analysis (arXiv cs.AI)Exploration and Exploitation Errors Are Measurable for Language Model Agents (arXiv cs.AI)OpenAI updates its Agents SDK to help enterprises build safer, more capable agents (TechCrunch AI)India’s vibe-coding startup Emergent enters OpenClaw-like AI agent space (TechCrunch AI)OpenAI updates Agents SDK with new sandbox support for safer AI agents (The Decoder AI)Gitar, a startup that uses agents to secure code, emerges from stealth with $9 million (TechCrunch AI)Connect the dots: Build with built-in and custom MCPs in Studio - Mistral AI (Mistral AI News)Project Glasswing: Securing critical software for the AI era - Anthropic (Anthropic News)Ship Code Faster with Claude Code on Vertex AI - Anthropic (Anthropic News)
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Education Subsection

P(DOOM) Calculator

A compact Bayesian toy for reasoning about catastrophic-risk assumptions without dragging that tool into the homepage payload.

Dark premium observatory scene with cascading probability arcs, a distant horizon, and precise signal geometry representing catastrophic-risk reasoning without readable text.

Reasoning Tool

Useful for structured thinking. Dangerous when treated like certainty.

This calculator is a toy model for making assumptions explicit: arrival, agentic behavior, controllability, and hostility. It is not a forecast engine. Its value is in exposing how much your conclusion depends on each conditional belief.

Good forSurfacing assumptions and sensitivity
Bad forPretending one toy posterior is real-world truth
Best useAs a thinking aid inside debate and education

Signal Tool

P(DOOM) Calculator

Explore how your assumptions multiply into a terminal-risk estimate.

Bayesian network nodes: D = ASI in 10y, A = agentic, U = uncontrollable, H = hostile.

Posterior via Bayes: P(E|D) = P(E|D)P(D) / [P(E|D)P(D) + P(E|¬D)P(¬D)]

How to use it

Change one assumption at a time

  • Move one conditional at a time and watch how sensitive the posterior becomes.
  • Use it to compare assumptions between people, not to fake precision.
  • Pair it with the AI Debates page if you want the argument layer around the math.

The value here is disciplined disagreement. The same headline can imply very different futures depending on the assumptions you quietly brought in before doing the math.